Don’t Get Tricked by the Barnum Effect

Let’s say you’ve been having a rough go of it lately. Nothing has really been going your way and you’re just looking for any sign that things will turn around for the better. In a small moment of self-indulgence, you pick up some good ol’ Chinese takeout and crack open a fortune cookie.

Something good is just around the bend, it reads.

Surely, this generalized positive statement was meant for you — and it’s just the sign you’ve been waiting for. You believe in what it says so much that it turns your mood around entirely. Suddenly, you’ve been invigorated with a sense of hope and renewal knowing your time of strife is only temporary.

But in reality, anyone could have picked up this fortune cookie and you’re likely experiencing the Barnum effect, a common psychological phenomenon that occurs when we place emphasis on generalized personality statements as if they were designed specifically with ourselves in mind.

Registered psychotherapist Natacha Duke, MA, RP, explains what makes the Barnum effect so powerful, why it works and what you can do when you recognize it’s becoming a problem.

What is the Barnum effect?

The Barnum effect describes the tendency to accept really general or vague statements and personality descriptions as if they were unique and applicable to us. It’s a form of cognitive bias, or a way of thinking that reinforces our own internalized beliefs at the expense of logic and an unbiased approach to a situation.

“Generally, as human beings, we want to validate our own perspectives and our own opinions, so we’re more likely to listen to and absorb positive statements about ourselves than we are negative statements,” explains Duke. “That’s really how the Barnum effect works. It’s usually neutral or positive statements we take in and we’re more likely to believe those.”

Originally coined as the Forer effect by psychologist Bertram Forer in 1948, this concept was popularized by psychologist Paul Meehl in the 1950s as the Barnum effect. The name is a nod to P.T. Barnum, the circus showman and performer who was known for making audiences feel as if Barnum was speaking directly to them whenever Barnum made broad, general statements.

For the Barnum effect to work, typically, three things need to occur:

1. Communication and information involving you are mainly positive.
2. You believe in the authority of the person or entity distributing that information.
3. You believe the information is personalized and tailored toward your unique experience, and you apply personal meaning to that information.

“If I’m going through something in my life and I have this little bit of hope that things are going to turn around for me, and then I go see a psychic and they say there’s going to be good luck in my future or something good is going to happen, that’s going to make me happy,” illustrates Duke. “But those are all very broad statements that could really apply to anyone and they’re positive. “It’s about cognitive bias. I want my own feelings to be true, so I’m looking for confirmation bias.”

Examples of the Barnum effect

The Barnum effect isn’t always straightforward. It tends to happen subtly and in ways we might not often think about, partially because we want to believe so badly in the reinforcement of our cognitive biases. Some common examples of the Barnum effect include:

• Believing a horoscope provides meaningful advice that’s specific to your life.
• Feeling that a fortune teller, psychic or medium has personal knowledge of your life and their advice pertains to only you and your future.
• Relating to memes, reels and social media posts that target a general audience as if they’re about you.
• Viewing advertisements or marketing as if it were made specifically for you and internalizing those beliefs so you feel pressured to fulfill that narrative.
• Taking personality tests in a magazine or online and agreeing with the results as if they were about you.
• Latching onto positive or neutral statements made by a motivational speaker as if what they’re saying is based in truth and designed for you and your life.
• Finding deeper meaning in an artist’s work so you not only relate to the artist, but also establish a one-sided parasocial relationship and feel their work is tailored specifically for you.

“We want to find connection and ways to validate who we are and how we’re feeling,” recognizes Duke. “Vague or broad statements can really seem personal, even from an advertising or marketing perspective. It makes you want to personalize or internalize those messages, and make decisions based on those beliefs so that you reinforce the narrative they’re providing.”

How to recognize the Barnum effect

The Barnum effect isn’t always bad for you. If you believe in things like fate and fortune, and these concepts inspire you and motivate you without interrupting your daily life or your ability to make decisions for yourself, there’s no harm in flipping over a daily tarot card.

“If you’re someone who really likes to listen to Taylor Swift’s music or likes to read your horoscope every week, is that really harming you or affecting your functioning? Probably not and it might be something that brings you joy and makes you feel connected. If that’s the case, that’s a non-problem,” says Duke.

“I think the difficulty is when you get people who are no longer trusting themselves and they’re looking to make their decisions based on consulting with their psychic or their horoscope because they really don’t trust their internal compass anymore and it’s affecting their decision making. That’s when I would look at what’s going on and how can we get you to really look to yourself to make these important decisions in your life.”

If you feel like you’re spinning your wheels before making any decision, here’s how you can get out of that rut and move forward.

Be aware of the Barnum effect

Cognitive biases can cloud your judgment if you feed into them for too long. Not only can they increase your level of gullibility, but studies have shown that those who have higher levels of anxiety and commit more cognitive biases based on the Barnum effect also have a harder time identifying fake news from real news. All of this is to say: Awareness is key. If you know that the Barnum effect exists and you’re conscious of your cognitive biases, it becomes easier to determine what’s fact from fiction — and knowledge is the foundation of every good decision.

Reduce your stressors

Stress can have a big impact on your cognitive ability to think and see things clearly. If you’re going through a hard time or you’re overwhelmed by life’s stressors, it can be easier to pass off decision-making onto someone or something else. Finding ways to limit your stress and regain control through mindfulness activities or even in other daily situations like getting enough sleep can really help clear out any brain fog that might be causing your decision fatigue.

Check-in with yourself about your decision-making process

How do you tend to make decisions? How often do you put them off or procrastinate? Do you tend to ask others for help or look to another source for guidance first? Duke says that when it comes to decision-making, if there’s a problem, it tends to grow in severity and with frequency over time.

“So, if this is happening more and more frequently, or you’re finding yourself looking for answers outside of yourself, that would be a sign that it’s something we need to deal with,” she notes.

Get some professional help

You should look into doing some cognitive behavioral therapy around decision-making and what’s contributing to you putting more trust in other elements like horoscopes, fortune tellers or whatever it is that’s not your own decision-making processes to see what’s causing you to pull away from your sense of self.

“The first thing we’d probably want to look at is what does it do for you to look to horoscopes and psychics, and looking at your own self-esteem,” explains Duke. “If you think about decision-making, it’s really about being able to be confident and trust yourself to make the best decision for yourself. Then, you’d go through some exercises on what makes a good decision. How do we think about things in a really factual, logical way? How do we begin to sort of trust that we’re going to make the best decisions for us?”

Recognize that sometimes, there may be no right or wrong decisions

People often think that there’s a right decision and a wrong decision, and then, they get stuck on the perception of that binary, of having to choose between two different extremes.

“When we’re struggling with a decision, it’s usually because there’s not a right or wrong decision,” Duke further explains. “If there’s a clear right or wrong decision, that’s pretty obvious, and those aren’t hard decisions to make. Those are just decisions. So, I think people get stuck in that, especially if your confidence is low.”

Learning when to trust your gut and following your instincts takes time, but it helps to recognize what are your values. If you’re unclear on what your values are, write them down. Create a list of non-negotiables and the foundational values you believe in and stand for. Having that to fall back on when you need to make big decisions is always helpful.

Build yourself up by doing your homework

“With cognitive behavioral therapy, we do a lot of homework in between sessions,” says Duke. “We might start by picking one small decision you can make today with your therapist. Slowly, over time, you would try to make more complicated decisions. The idea is to look for any reassurances and start to build that trust in yourself.”

Your therapist might ask you to keep a journal or notes on decisions you’ve made or struggled with between sessions, and then re-evaluate how things are going along the way. Remember that healing is not linear, so there may be days when some decisions feel heavier or more complicated than others. That’s OK. The important thing to recognize is that you’ve already made the decision to try and better yourself and improve your own health and wellness by focusing on building up your confidence and self-esteem. That alone is worth its weight in gold.

“Sometimes, when we’re stuck in this tendency to not make decisions for ourselves, we often overestimate the consequences or underestimate our ability to handle the consequences,” relates Duke.

“But once you make a decision and you see that everything is OK or maybe the outcome wasn’t what you wanted but you still see that the outcome wasn’t all that bad, that also builds confidence. That confidence goes a long way into helping you make your next decision.”